Machine Learning vs. Survival Analysis Models: a study on right censored heart failure data

Srujana, B. and Verma, Dhananjay and Naqvi, Sameen (2022) Machine Learning vs. Survival Analysis Models: a study on right censored heart failure data. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation. pp. 1-18. ISSN 0361-0918

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Abstract

Machine Learning Models are known to understand the intricacies of the data well, but native ML models cannot be used in time-to-event analysis due to censoring. In this paper, we explore the use of Machine Learning Models in the field of Survival Analysis using right censored Heart Failure Clinical Records Dataset. For this purpose, we first identify the top most important features responsible for death due to heart failure using Recursive Feature Elimination and then see how Machine Learning models can be adapted to improve the time-to-event analysis outcomes. To deal with this, Machine Learning Models are modified using the techniques Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) and IPCW Bagging and are trained using the processed dataset alongside various survival analysis models. Area Under the time-dependent ROC (AUC) is used as a performance metric. The results reveal that the average AUC value for Survival Analysis Models is 0.51 while that of Machine Learning Models processed using IPCW increased to 0.80, and those processed using IPCW Bagging increased by 0.82. This reflects that Machine Learning models outperform Survival Analysis models in the case of time-to-event analysis of right censored dataset, and hence, are better indicators of risk of heart disease. © 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

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