Probability distribution for monthly precipitation data in India

Anumandla, S and Dyuthi, S R and Desai, Shantanu (2017) Probability distribution for monthly precipitation data in India. arXiv. pp. 1-23.

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Abstract

We carry out a study of the statistical distribution of rainfall precipitation data for various cites in India, motivated by similar work done in Ghosh et al (2016), which studied the probability distribution of rainfall in multiple cities in Bangladesh. We have determined the best-fit probability distribution for the monthly precipitation data spanning 100 years of data from 1901 to 2002, for multiple stations located all over India, such as Gandhinagar, Guntur, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kohima, Kurnool, and Patna. To fit the observed data, we considered the Fisher, Gamma, Gumbel, Inverse Gaussian, Normal, Weibull, Student-t, Beta, and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The efficacy of the fits for these distributions are evaluated using four empirical non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests namely Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), Chi-Square, Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian Information criterion (BIC). Finally, the best-fit distribution using each of these tests are reported for the various cities.

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