Epidemic Analysis Using Traditional Model Checking and Stochastic Simulation

Chauhan, K (2015) Epidemic Analysis Using Traditional Model Checking and Stochastic Simulation. Masters thesis, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad.

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Abstract

Stochastic model checking has been the mainstay for formal analysis of epidemic progression in recent years. However, such methods are sensitive to inaccuracies in estimating stochastic parameters like infection transmission and recovery rates. In this work, we revert to traditional model checking (specifically, for timed automata) to absorb inaccurately provided parameters into the non-determinism inherent in such traditional formalisms. Parameters obtained through stochastic simulation are used by the timed automata, with suficiently wide windows of non-determinism to account for error. A positive side effect of this approach is that separating the probabilistic component from actual epidemic timed automata model, helps us to focus on the progression logic while building the model.

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