Bayesian analysis of time dependence of DAMA annual modulation amplitude

Bhagvati, Srinikitha and Desai, Shantanu (2021) Bayesian analysis of time dependence of DAMA annual modulation amplitude. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2021 (09). 022. ISSN 1475-7516

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Abstract

We implement a test of the variability of the per-cycle annual modulation amplitude in the different phases of the DAMA/LIBRA experiment using Bayesian model comparison. Using frequentist methods, a previous study [1] had demonstrated that the DAMA amplitudes spanning over the DAMA/NaI and the first phase of the DAMA/LIBRA phases, show a mild preference for time-dependence in multiple energy bins. With that motivation, we first show using Bayesian techniques that the aforementioned data analyzed in [1] show a moderate preference for exponentially varying amplitudes in the 2–5 and 2–6 keV energy intervals. We then carry out a similar analysis on the latest modulation amplitudes released by the DAMA collaboration from the first two phases of the upgraded DAMA/LIBRA experiment. We also analyze the single-hit residual rates released by the DAMA collaboration to further look for any possible time-dependency. However, we do not find any evidence for variability of either of the two datasets by using Bayesian model selection. All our analysis codes and datasets have been made publicly available.

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